Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: The latest Victoria Election Opinion Polls have the ruling ALP leading. As per the polls, ALP is set to return to power once again.
Victoria Election Opinion Poll:
Average of Last 3 Polls: ALP: 38%, LIB/NAT: 30%, GRN: 12%
Two Party Preferred Votes: ALP: 57%, LIB/NAT: 43%
Latest Victorian State Election Poll 2022: ALP: 42%, LIB/NAT: 28%, GRN: 12%
Latest Two Party Preferred Votes: ALP: 58%, LIB/NAT: 42%
Google Search Share (7 Days Average): Liberals: 50%, ALP: 33%, GRN: 17%
Social Media Sentiment: Daniel Andrews: -58.1%, Matthew Guy: -59.9%
Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Considering all the factors, we predict the return of Dan Andrews as a Premier of Victoria.
When Is the Victoria Election 2022?
In the month of May 2022, Australia saw a change in power after 15 years. The incumbent Liberal /National coalition government led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison to the Australian Labor Party under Anthony Albanese. The Australian Labor Party won the majority on its own for the first time since 2007.
However, two months before the Federal election, the ALP led by Peter Malinauskas won the 2022 South Australian state election beating Premier Steven Marshall and his Liberal Party. Australia is once again set to vote and this time it will be to elect a government in Victoria. The Victorian State Election is scheduled for 26th November 2022.
The incumbent Labor government is seeking a successive 3rd term.
Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Early Voting Date and Details
For the upcoming Victorian Election, the vote in person is fixed for Saturday, 26th November. However, between Monday 14 November, and Friday 25 November, the voting centers will open for early voting.
Around 4.4 million voters are enrolled in Victoria with 1.7 million people expected to vote at a pre-poll center. 600,000 people are expected to use postal votes.
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Victorian State Election 2022 Predictions Table
|Who is Winning?||Trending Towards|
|Social Media Sentiment||Dan Andrews||Matthew Guy|
Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Key Takeaways from The Latest Poll
- The opinion polls for the upcoming Victorian State Election predict the return of the Labor government once again. As per the Poll, the Labor Party may win about 35.2% of the Primary Votes while the Liberal National Party may win 32.2% of the Primary votes.
- Only 72% of voters would like to vote for the two major national parties, it was 78% in 2018.
- The support base of Labor has fallen around 8% in the latest poll while the Liberals have lost around 3%.
- 44% of the respondents in the latest poll support the work of Premier Daniel Andrews.
- Support for Dan Andrews and his party is at the weakest among the youth between 18-34 years old. Only 9% in this age group are happy with the work of Dan Andrews.
- Despite waning support for Liberal Government, they are set to return to power now.
Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: What do the Opinion Polls Predict?
|Average of Polls (29th Sept)||38%||30%||12%|
|Resolve Strategic (18 Sept)||42%||28%||12%|
|Roy Morgan (13 Sept)||36%||29%||14%|
|Guardian Essential poll (13th Sept)||35%||32%||10%|
Victorian Election Polls: Two Party Preferred Votes
Since none of the parties or the coalition will be able to cross the 50% mark in the Primary votes, the two-party preferred votes are set to decide the outcome of the election. As per the latest poll, Labor Party is well placed to return to power once again in Victoria.
|Average of Polls (28th Sept)||57%||43%|
|Roy Morgan (13 Sept)||58%||42%|
|Newspoll (25th Aug)||56%||44%|
2018 Election Result
Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Leaders and Their Seat
Victorian Opinion Polls: Who is Better to Lead Victoria?
|Better Premier (Firm)||Daniel Andrews||Matthew Guy|
|Andrew Guy Approval||Satisfied||Dissatisfied|
Latest Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Google Trends
Google Search Volume: The Google Search Volume for Labor Party is for the first time higher than that of Liberals.
|Last 7 days|
|Last 30 days|
|Last 7 Days|
Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Net Sentiment
Social Media Sentiment: Social media sentiment of both Dan Andrews and Matthew Guy is the worst. Dan Andrews has a slightly better sentiment than Matthew Guy.
Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Tweets
Latest Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Videos
Vic Election Polls: What Happened in Last Election?
The last Victorian State election was held on November 24th to elect the 59th Parliament of Victoria. The Labor government under Premier Daniel Andrews was seeking a second term. The opposition Liberal/National Coalition was led by Matthew Guy. The election result was on the expected lines.
The Labor Party won the majority in 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly. They won a total of 55 seats, 8 seats more than what it had won in the last election. The Liberal/National Coalition faced a huge defeat as they could win only 27 seats, 11 seats less than what they had won in the last election.
The Labor Party leader Daniel Andrews went on to become the Premier of Victoria for the 2nd time in a row.
Victorian Opinion Polls
|30 June – 2 July 2022||Roy Morgan|
Latest Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Election Procedure and the Tenure
Victoria follows a compulsory voting system which means that all eligible citizens need to register and vote in the election. In case of failure to vote, the citizens may be subjected to a penalty if in case they are unable to furnish a valid reason for absenteeism.
In Victoria, the instant runoff voting method is followed. It is a kind of ranked preferential voting method. The majority voting rule is used to determine the single winner. The candidates are ranked by the voters with respect to their preferences. If a candidate has more than 50% of the 1st preference vote, the candidate is declared the winner. Else if there are more than 2 candidates and none gets 50% 1st preference votes, the candidates with few votes are eliminated first and their votes are added to the top two candidates on the basis of their preference.
The process continues until one candidate has more than half of the preference votes and finally the winner is declared.
The Victorian Legislative has a total of 88 seats. For the majority, a party or a coalition needs to win a minimum of 45 seats. On November 26th, the Victorians will vote to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. The term of each Parliament is of 4 years whereas the Federal Government of Australia is only for 3 years.