Quebec Election 2022 Predictions

Quebec Election Polls 2022: The incumbent Coalition Avenir Quebec is set to return to power as per the latest Quebec Election Polls. The last 2 days have been good for Plamondon and PQ.

Latest Quebec Election Polls: CAQ: 38.1%, QS: 16.0%, Liberals: 15.3%, Conservatives: 14.2%, PQ: 14.7%.

Projected Seats: CAQ: 96, Liberals:18, Conservatives: 0, QS: 9, PQ: 2.

Google Search Share (Election Day): CAQ: 27%, Liberals: 12%, Conservatives: 11%, QS: 28%, PQ: 22%

Social Media Sentiment: CAQ: -22.7%, Liberals: -12.4%, Conservatives: +2.8% and QS: -24.6%, PQ: +19.2%.

CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: CAQ will win and also gain seats. QS is likely to finish second on vote share while the Liberals are expected to finish second on seats.


Voting Day Update

Google Search Volume

CAQ is underperforming on election day both in terms of share of search queries as well as social media sentiments.

Last 4 Hours 2018 [Day Before Election Day]
CAQ 24% 43%
Liberals 14% 6%
QS 32% 32%
Conservatives 11% 4%
Parti Quebec 19% 15%
*Election day data from 2018 is not used due to contamination during evening counting hours.

The Google search volume shows that CAQ is struggling. However, the vote division among the opposition has been a factor that will help CAQ sail through. CAQ may land up winning more seats but less vote share.

Liberals are out of the race with QS surging. There has been a surge in the search volume for QS in the last few days and in the last 4 hours, it has skyrocketed.

Conservatives are set to play a spoiler for Liberals and indirectly help CAQ win more seats. The election is now the fight for second place.

Net Social Media Sentiment

Last 4 hours

  • CAQ: -14.7%
  • PLQ: +6.8%
  • PCQ: +1.5%
  • QS: -3.6%
  • PQ: +13.3%

Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022

The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by François Legault registered a massive win in the last election. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly.

*Note: 2018 was the first time Coalition Avenir Quebec won a provincial election in Quebec.

Quebec Election 2022 Predictions

Number 1 Who is Gaining?
Polls CAQ PQ
Google Search QS QS
Social Media Sentiment PQ PQ

Election Day: Things to Know

The polling station will open from 9:30 am and will close at 8 pm. Voters need to cast their votes in their respective ridings.

Each voter will have to furnish a proof of their identification at the time of voting. The ID proofs accepted at the polling stations are:

  • Driver’s licence
  • Health insurance card
  • Canadian passport
  • Certificate of Indian Status
  • Canadian Armed Forces identity card

The parties on the ballot are:

  • Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), Leader: François Legault
  • Québec Liberal Party (PLQ), Leader: Dominique Anglade
  • Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ), Leader: Éric Duhaime
  • Québec Solidaire (QS), Leader: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
  • Parti Québécois (PQ), Leader: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
  • Bloc Montréal, Leader: Balarama Holness
  • Canadian Party of Québec Leader: Colin Standish

Quebec election: will voter turnout continue to decrease?

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To read a Google Translated French Version of this article, click here

Quebec Election Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

Who will win the Quebec Election 2022?

 

CAQ will win the Quebec Election 2022 by a huge margin. CAQ is projected to win 38% vote share while Québec solidaire is predicted to finish at second place (at the moment) with 16% of the vote. The Conservatives may gain the most share rising from 1.5% to about 14%. PQ managed to recoup some of its losses in the final stages of the campaign but this may not be enough to repeat the 2018 performance.

Why is CAQ performing well in the Quebec Election 2022?

 

55% of voters approve of the job done by Francois Legault. CAQ and Legault are outperforming those who are over 49 years of age.

The biggest issue by a wide margin in this election according to voters is Healthcare. This is particularly true amongst those who are older than 49 years of age. An independent survey in December 2021 found that 61% of Quebecers were happy with the healthcare system, this was a 5% jump over 2020. This has no doubt helped CAQ retain its vote share. Read about Francois Legault and His approval ratings.

Taxes remain a big issue amongst Younger,non-francophone, affluent, and those living in the Quebec Metropolitan region. The PCQ’s focus on taxes is hurting the Liberals which in turn is helping the CAQ win more seats than in 2018 despite winning almost the same vote share.

CAQ continues to dominate amongst voters from households with < $50,000 income leading the Liberals by 39% points. Even though those making less than $50,000 make up for just 40% of Quebec’s population, CAQ is predicted to win 55% of its vote from this group alone. CAQ performs the best amongst older women from households that make less than $50,000 a year.

The Opposition is completely fragmented further by the Conservative party surge in the Polls.

How are the Conservatives performing in Quebec?

 

The Conservative performance in Quebec is truly mindboggling. The PCQ leads Liberals amongst 18-34-year-olds by 23% points. The Conservatives are also quite competitive vs CAQ amongst those who are under 50 years of age. The Conservatives are struggling amongst women and those older than 65. Despite PCQ being in a position of winning a 14-17% vote share, they are unlikely to win any seats.

The rise of the Conservative Party is directly benefitting the ruling CAQ as much of the vote gain comes from rivals of the CAQ – PLQ and PQ.

Liberals vs Conservatives in Quebec (Google Search)

  • 2019 – Liberals 83%, Conservatives 17%
  • 2020 – Liberals 80%, Conservatives 20%
  • 2021 – Liberals 57%, Conservatives 43%
  • 2022 – Liberals 43%, Conservatives 57%
What is Hurting Liberals in Quebec?

 

The Liberals in Quebec were once the most dominant force and they have been in the power for a couple of terms in Quebec. However, things have changed and now PLQ is fighting for its existence even in its strongholds.

Montreal has been a stronghold of Liberals given the concentration of Non-Francophones. However, things have changed rapidly. Several controversial bills have been passed by CAQ but PLQ failed to communicate with the voters effectively. Bills like Bill 21 which prohibits state employees like teachers from wearing religious clothing on the job, Bill 96 which talks in favor of the French language but has some controversial sections like shielding it from court challenges, the six-month rule for immigrants, and also Bill 40 which abolished school boards.

The Liberal’s confusing moves on Bill 96, and the unpopularity of the Federal Government’s (Liberal controlled) decision with respect to COVID as well as economic policy have all hurt Quebec’s Liberal Party. Further, Anglade has struggled to stand out in the debates giving voters no reason to vote for Quebec’s Liberal party.

The PLQ leadership has failed to grow connections with voters.

Who is leading in Montreal?

 

  • PLQ: 19.8% (-18.2% vs 2018)
  • CAQ: 39.7% (+11.9%)
  • PQ: 13.0% (-6.0%)
  • PCQ: 13.3% (+11.1%)
  • QS: 12.5% (-1.7%)

Liberals have lost their once dominant position in Montreal with the Conservatives likely to win about 12% of the vote.

Who is leading among Non-Francophone Voters?

 

  • PLQ: 47.7% (-23.3% vs 2018)
  • CAQ: 19.9% (+5.9%)
  • PQ: 0.3% (-3.7%)
  • PCQ: 19.7% (+17.7%)
  • QS: 6.8% (-0.2%)

Quebec Election Polls: Latest Polls

Average of Polls October 3rd
CAQ 38.1%(2018-37.4%)
PCQ 14.2% (1.5%)
PLQ 15.3% (24.8%)
QS 16.0% (16.1%)
PQ 14.7% (17.1%)
Mainstreet October 2nd
CAQ 41.4%
Conservatives 16.7%
Liberals 14.8%
QS 12.0%
Parti Quebecois 14.0%
Leger October 1st
CAQ 38.0%
Conservatives 14.0%
Liberals 17.0%
QS 15.0%
PQ 15.0%
EKOS September 23rd
CAQ 35%
Conservatives 12%
Liberals 14%
QS 21%
Parti Quebecois 15%

Quebec Election Polls 2022: Google Search Analysis

Quebec Election Polls: Party-wise (Election Day)

  • CAQ: 27% (45% in 2018)
  • Liberals: 12% (7% in 2018)
  • QS: 28% (39% in 2018)
  • Conservative: 11% (5% in 2018)
  • Parti Quebec: 22%(15% in 2018)

Party Leader Wise (Last 24 hours)

  • Francois Legault (CAQ): 29%
  • Dominique Anglade (PLQ): 17%
  • Gabriel Dubois (QS): 16%
  • Eric Duhaime (PCQ): 24%
  • Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PQ): 14%

Quebec Election 2022: Social media Sentiments

Party (Last 24 Hours)

  • CAQ: -22.7%
  • PLQ: -12.4%
  • PCQ: +2.8%
  • QS: -24.6%
  • PQ: +19.2%

Leaders

  • Legault (CAQ): -37.0%
  • Anglade (PLQ): -6.0%
  • Dubois (QS): -32.9%
  • Duhaime (PCQ): -28.7%
  • Plamondon (PQ): +9.9%

If you want to skip reading Party Platforms (below), click here to read about the chances of each political party

Quebec Election 2022 Platforms

Here is a summary of the official platforms of various parties.

Coalition Avenir Quebec

  1. Build thousands of new social and affordable housing units if re-elected.
  2. Spend $1.4 billion over five years to convert more than 56,000 unsubsidized daycare spots into subsidized spaces.
  3. Constitute a new health agency.
  4. Tax cuts, reduce the gap between the personal income tax burden of Quebecers versus the rest of North America and Canada.
  5. CAQ promises $40 Million for Quebec’s Religious Heritage
  6. CAQ promises to boost Quebec City’s population.

PLQ

  1. Family doctor for all Quebec patients
  2. PLQ promises to boost ECO Projects. ECO Projects means a combination of economy and ecology.
  3. Supporting the development of industrial green hydrogen power projects
  4. Finance the installation of 20 THE LIBERAL PLAYBOOK | ECO PROJECT water meters in all non-residential buildings to reduce consumption and establish voluntary programs for the agricultural sector.
  5. Introduce a seniors’ benefit of $2,000 per year to support each person aged 70 and up who wants to remain in their own home
  6. Implementing all the recommendations from the Special Commission on Children’s Rights and Youth Protection
  7. Eliminating the welcome tax on the purchase of a first property
  8. Increase the number of teachers by facilitating access to qualifying master’s degrees.
  9. Doubling the income tax exemption for those aged 65 and up by increasing the amount to $30,000.

Québec Solidaire

  1. Local Healthcare with CLSCs open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. QS promised to invest more in prevention.
  2. QS promised to stop raising the electricity bill, introduce dental insurance and cut the public travel cost to half.
  3. QS election platform includes affordable and comfortable housing for the people of Quebec.
  4. QS also promises to solve the issue of the shortage of places in CPE.
  5. For the people living in the Montreal Metropolitan area, QS promises to provide ecological and practical transportation to get around.
  6. Québec solidaire will deliver 50,000 modern and ecological social housing units in all regions of Québec.
  7. Québec solidaire will establish a free access program to all contraceptive methods, without exception.

Parti conservateur du Québec

  1. PCQ promises to Reform Public Healthcare. It promises to digitize the healthcare system and increase the supply of healthcare.
  2. Making public transport free in Quebec City and progressive electrification of transport.
  3. In the field of housing, PCQ promises to help low-income tenants through a rent setting method that benefits both owner and the tenants.
  4. To provide relief to the Quebecers from the growing expense, PCQ promises to lower gasoline taxes. It also promises to end taxes on second-hand goods.
  5. To assist all families with childcare, PCQ promises an allowance of $200 per week, per child, for parents who do not have access to CPEs or who wish to use a different service.

Parti Québécois

  1. PQ promises to provide more robust health care transfers to Quebec. Also, create Federal tax credit for the caregivers.
  2. To protect the environment Parti Quebecois promises to meet the Paris agreement targets, which include cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.
  3. Introduce a tax credit for recent graduates and immigrants who accept work in rural areas of Quebec

Quebec Election 2022 Polls: What are the Chances of Each Political Party?

CAQ: Since the win in the 2018 election, Francois Legault and his party Coalition Avenir Quebec has been leading in all the polls and the popularity of CAQ has been surging all over Quebec except in Montreal where they have underperformed even in the last election.

PLQ: The Liberals under Dominique Anglade are not in the position to challenge the might of CAQ in this election. The 2018 election saw Liberals decline from 68 seats to 31. They have lost a significant proportion of their relatively younger and more moderate anglophone base to the Conservatives.

PQ: Party Quebecois which has been in power and also the main opposition party has been on a decline since 2018. The party managed to win 10 seats with around an 18% vote share in 2018. They continue to bleed votes to the CAQ but managed to slow that down after Plamondon’s performance in the debates and the final weeks of the campaign.

PCQ: The Conservatives were nowhere on the scene in the 2018 election but the pandemic has helped them increase their vote base in Quebec. Their anti-lockdown policies and low taxes promises are popular among a certain section of Quebecers. Led by Eric Duhaime, the Conservative party is set to gain significantly, the latest poll gives it over 14% vote share. However, they are unlikely to win a single seat.

Read: Justin Trudeau Approval Rating

Quebec Election Polls: Latest video

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Quebec Election 2022: Latest Tweets

Quebec Election 2022: Latest News

  1. Not sure who to vote for in the Quebec election? Here are some tools to help you decide
  2. André Pratte: François Legault limps to victory in Quebec election
  3. Quebec’s election and a political crossroad
  4. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is the best liked of Quebec’s major party leaders
  5. François Legault has made his mark on Quebec, regardless of the election

Quebec Election Polls: What happened in the last election?

The last Quebec General election was held in the year 2018. CAQ won the elections under the leadership of Francois Legault. CAQ won 74 seats in the Quebec assembly while the Liberals under Philippe Couillard won just 31 seats, 37 seats less than their previous tally.

Quebec Election 2022 Polls: Demographics

  • Quebec has a population of 8.2 million population which makes it the second-most populous province in Canada. Montreal is the largest city in Quebec. Quebec City is the only city in Canada where the majority of the population speak the French language
  • The racial composition of Quebec is 87% white and 11% minority groups. Quebec has a smaller number of visible minority groups than British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Manitoba, and most visible minorities live in the Montreal metropolitan area.
  • Quebec has the highest number of international adoptions in Canada with 42% of all international adoptions carried out in the province.
Quebec Election Polls 2022

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