Gold Price Forecast for the next 12 months

Gold Price Forecast revised lower to $1661. Gold Rises as DXY Retreats a Little.

 

Gold Price Forecast is revised lower to $1661. The short-term outlook is Negative.

Gold Price Forecast for Next Week is $1625 to $1685

Gold Rate Today (Spot)

Overview

Gold is viewed by many as an inflation hedge and a must-have in their investment basket. There are some unique properties of Gold as an Investment

  • Gold tends to deliver above-inflation returns
  • Gold tends to underperform equity indices
  • Gold tends to perform well when interest rates are trending lower
  • Gold tends to outperform equity indices when the economy is in a downturn and hence a good way to diversify risk in the portfolio

Gold Performance Analysis

While Gold has fallen just 9% this year to the $1600-$1700 range, there was a period between January and March when Gold rose nearly $200 and breached the $2000 level for the second time in two years.

What has helped Gold price rise?

  1. Expansion of Federal Reserve’s balance sheet during the Covid crisis, 2020-21
  2. Rise in Inflation, Second half of 2021
  3. The Ukraine Russia Crisis in 2022

What has pushed Gold price lower?

  1. Federal Reserve’s slowing down of balance sheet expansion, 2021
  2. The Ukraine Crisis not disrupting the Global economies as much as expected
  3. The Fed’s increase in interest rates
  4. The fall in US consumer inflation
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Gold Price Forecast for the next 12 months

To be able to predict how Gold will move, we will have to predict the factors that influence Gold price in the future.

  1. Federal Reserve: The Fed is likely to increase rates all the way into 2023. Therefore one can safely say that Gold price is unlikely to rise significantly until at least the first quarter of 2023
  2. Inflation: Inflation fell marginally last month (and in line with our forecasts) but is likely to fall rapidly over the next 6 months to below 6%. This is unlikely to be the case until January or February of next year. So Gold has some favorable tailwinds until then which will ensure Gold does not fall below $1200
  3. Ukraine Crisis: It is unclear how this will play out at the moment.

The average Gold Price Forecast is $1713

Gold Price Forecast (Next 12 months) $1661
ING $1650
OANDA $1680
ANZ $1600
Capital Economics $1650
Credit Suisse $1725

Gold Price Prediction: FAQs

Will the Gold rate decrease in the coming days?

 

Yes, Gold is likely to decrease rather than increase. However, it is unlikely to crash as Gold may still be a safe haven for countries that are suffering from high inflation on account of a weak currency. Gold will decrease in price but stay above $1600 for now.

Will Gold rate increase in coming days?

 

There is no evidence that Gold rate will increase in the coming days. DXY is getting stronger, the Ukraine conflict may get worse and both Europe and China are struggling (=Stronger Dollar).

Is it a good time to buy Gold?

 

Yes, it is a good time to buy SOME Gold. Particularly if you are a resident of a country with high inflation and weakening currency. While Gold may fall as low as $1200 over the next 2 years, it is unlikely to crash in the near future and instead operate in a small range for now.

How low will Gold go?

 

Using historic patterns, we can predict that Gold could go as low as $1200 in this cycle which may end in 2024-25

Why are Gold Prices Dropping?

 

Gold prices doubled between 2016 and 2020 even as the Fed increased its balance sheet (with a pause in 2018). Gold prices tend to fall when interest rates rise in response to inflation or fear of inflation. Investors find investing in securities and the dollar to be safer than any other investment. Gold began to unwind after the COVID crisis began to ease and inflation breached 6% in the United States.

World Gold Council WGC 2022 Outlook

Gold Price Predictions for next 5 years

Gold Price Prediction 2023 $1884
Gold Price Prediction 2024 $2069
Gold Prediction 2025 $2272
XAUUSD Prediction 2026 $2494
XAUUSD Prediction 2027 $2739

Gold Forecast Today

Overall Partially Positive
1. Market’s Wisdom Positive
1a. Dollar Index Positive for Gold
1b.US 10Year Positive for gold
1c.Technicals Buy
2. Crowd’s Wisdom Partially Negative
2a. Social Media Buzz Steady
2b. Social Media Sentiment Lower

US Inflation Forecast 2022

Gold Forecast News and Tweets

Gold Price Forecast today and for next few days

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