Arizona Senate Polls: Why Blake Masters May Win Despite Polls Giving Mark Kelly An Edge?

Arizona Senate Race Polls Average: Blake Masters: 45.0%, Mark Kelly: 49.7%.

Google Search Share: Blake Masters: 48%, Mark Kelly: 52%
Net Social media Sentiment: Blake Masters: -28.8%, Mark Kelly: -55.1%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Too Close to Call


Debate Update

Summary: Blake Masters saw a marginal jump in awareness and a marginal deterioration in perception. Mark Kelly on the other hand appears to have significantly improved voter perception of him during the debate.

Social Media Sentiments

  • Blake Masters: -31.4% (Deteriorated during the debate)
  • Mark Kelly: -39.5% (Improved during the debate)

Google Search Volumes

  • Blake Masters: 50% (Marginally Improved during the debate)
  • Mark Kelly: 50% (Marginally Deteriorated during the debate)

When is the Arizona Senate Election?

The Arizona Senate Race will be held on November 8th to elect a member of the US Senate. The primaries will be held on August 2nd, 2022.

On August 2nd, Arizona voted in the Primary election. Blake Masters won the GOP nomination while Mark Kelly had a challenger in the Dems’ Primary election.

For the Senate Race, it will be the fight between Democrat Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters.

Arizona Senate Race Polls: General Election

Arizona Senate Polls: Prediction Table

Who is leading? Who is Gaining?
Polls Mark Kelly Masters
Google Search Volumes Mark Kelly Steady
Social Media Sentiment Blake Masters Kelly

Blake Masters: What Biden and Mark Kelly did is unforgivable

YouTube video

Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Blake Masters vs Mark Kelly Polls

Date
Average of all Mark Kelly Polls October 7th
Mark Kelly (D) 49.7%
Blake Masters (R) 45.0%
Peoples_Pundit (R) October 5th
Mark Kelly (D) 46%
Blake Masters (R) 45%
CBS News October 4th
Mark Kelly (D) 51%
Blake Masters (R) 48%
CNN October 2nd
Mark Kelly (D) 52%
Blake Masters (R) 42%

The latest Mark Kelly Polls have the Democratic Party’s candidate, Mark Kelly ahead of Blake Masters by 1%. The poll was conducted by the Democratic Party leaning Data for Progress.

The incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly polled over 51% in the last election and if the polls are to be believed he may poll a similar poll number even in the upcoming Arizona Senate Race.

Arizona Senate Predictions

The polls for the upcoming Arizona Senate Race have been in favor of the incumbent Mark Kelly. However, the Arizona Senate Predictions by different platforms have mostly followed a neutral path. After analyzing various Election indicators, Crowdwisdom360’s Arizona Senate prediction is Toss Up.

Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls: Google Search Update

Latest Google Trends for the last 7 days

Google Search Volume: There has been little improvement in the search volume of Mark Kelly.

October 6th
Mark Kelly 52%
Blake Masters 48%
September 30th
Mark Kelly 51%
Blake Masters 49%

Arizona Senate Race Polls: Social Media sentiments

Social Media Sentiment: The last 7 Days’ average shows highly negative sentiment for both Mark Kelly and Blake Masters. However, the sentiments for Masters are marginally better compared to that of Kelly’s.

October 6th
Kelly -51.1%
Masters -28.8%
September 30th
Kelly -45.7%
Masters -27.9%

Arizona Senate Polls: Why Blake Masters May Win Despite Polls Giving Mark Kelly An Edge?

Mark Kelly became the Senator from Arizona after the special election was held following the death of the sitting Republican senator John McCain. In the election, Mark Kelly polled around 1.7M votes while his GOP rival got 1.6 M votes. If we look at the last 5 election data in Arizona, 2020 registered the maximum voter turnout. In 2020, the total registered voters in Arizona stood at 4.2 M, and now the total registered voters have gone down to 4.1M.

Below is the break of registered voters as of August 2022 in Arizona:

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

During the General election of 2020, the total number of registered Democrat voters was 1.27 M and the registered Republican voters were 1.37M. Now the number of registered GOP voters has increased by over 60K while the number of registered Democratic Party’s voters increased by around 10K.

Mark Kelly won the last election by around 79K votes. Considering the latest data, if Blake Masters can make more GOP registered voters head to the polling booth, he will be in a better position to defeat Mark Kelly.

Read AZ primary Polls (Gubernatorial)

Arizona Senate Polls: Latest Videos

YouTube video

Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Latest Tweets

Blake Masters Polls: Primary Election Data

The Arizona Senate Primary election concluded on August 2nd. Mark Kelly was declared winner unopposed in the Democratic Party’s Primary election. In the GOP Senate Primary, Blake Masters won the GOP nominee.

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

Arizona Senate Race Polls GOP Primary Candidates

  • Mark Brnovich, (Attorney General of Arizona(2015-Present)
  • Jim Lamon (Businessman)
  • Blake Masters, (COO of Thiel Capital, President of Thiel Foundation)
  • Michael McGuire (Major General(ret.) of the Arizona National Guard)
  • Justin Olson (Arizona Utility Regulator on the Arizona Corporation Commission)
  • Robert Paveza(Software Engineer)
  • Craig Brittain

Arizona Senate Polls: Fundraising Details

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

Among the GOP Candidates, Jim Lamon has been able to raise maximum funds to finance his campaign. Despite Blake Masters being endorsed by Donald Trump and backed by Peter Thiel, American billionaire entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and political activist, has not been able to raise funds as much as Jim Lamon has been able to raise.

Lamon has raided over $15M as of now while Blake Masters has been able to raise around $4.5M. Talking about expenditure, Lamon has spent nearly $13M as of now while Masters has spent around $3M on his campaign. Mark Brnovich has an expenditure of around $2.5M on his campaign as of now.

However, if we talk about spending outside of the fund raised, Blake Masters is way ahead of Jim Lamon. Masters has over $7M outside expenditure while Lamon has none apart from the fund raised.

Blake Masters vs Mark Kelly Polls: Democratic Party

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

The incumbent Mark Kelly has raised a whopping $50M for his campaign and none of the GOP candidates can even come closer to the funding of Mark Kelly. Even after spending $27M as of now, Kelly is left with nearly $25M in hand.

Arizona Senate Primary Polls 2022: Latest GOP Primary Election Polls

Blake Masters Polls

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

Arizona Senate Polls: Last 3 Election Polling Average and Result

2020 Senate Election: The last Arizona Senate Election took place in 2020. It was a special election initiated after the death of the sitting Republican Senator John McCain. After the death of McCain, the Arizona Governor appointed Jon Kyl as a Senator in place of McCain till the special election was held. However, Jon Kyl resigned within four months of his appointment and Martha McSally replaced him as a Senator.

On November 3rd, 2020 a special election was held to elect the next Senator of Arizona. Mark Kelly was on the ballot for Democratic Party. Kelly defeated McSally and flipped the seat after a long duration. He outperformed Joe Biden who won the state by a margin of 0.3% while Kelly won the seat by a margin of 2.4%.

Result: Mark Kelly: 51.2% Martha McSally: 48.8%

Arizona Senate Race Polls: 2016 Senate Election: 2016 Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8th, 2016. John McCain was the GOP nominee while Ann Kirkpatrick was on the ballot as a Democratic Party nominee. The election was almost one-sided with Ann Kirkpatrick posing almost no threat to McCain’s election. John McCain won the election by a whopping 13%. McCain polled 53.7% of the total votes while Ann Kirkpatrick received 40.8% vote share.

2010 Senate Election: The 2010 Senate election in Arizona was completely dominated by the Republicans. John McCain was the GOP candidate while Rodney Glassman was the Democratic Party’s candidate. The election was held on November 2, 2010. John McCain won the election and he secured a total of 59.1% votes while Glassman received only 34.% of the total votes.

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

Arizona Senate Race Polls: Endorsements

Blake Masters

  • Donald Trump, former US President
  • Tucker Carlson, Conservative Journalist, and political commentator
  • Peter Thiel, Millionaire Venture Capitalist, and his boss
  • Rober C ‘O Brien, Fourth NSA of Donald Trump

Jim Lamon

  • Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC)

Arizona Senate Polls 2022: Voter Registration

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of July 2021

The state has 4.32 Million Registered Voters.

  • 34.72% are registered, Republicans
  • 31.78% are registered, Democrats
  • 32.60% are Independents

AZ Senate Race 2022 Polls: Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arizona State a Republican or Democratic state?

  • Mostly the political offices in Arizona are held by the Republican party. Both US senators and 5 out of 9 houses of representatives are democrats and the remaining other four are Republicans. Many were elected first time elected in 2018.

How often are Senate Elections?

  • A senate can run for reelection after six years. As per the term, the Senate has six years to serve Arizona. Senators are appointed or elected in special elections to serve the remainder of the term.

AZ Senate Race 2022 Polls: Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census figures

Arizona Senate Polls 2022

Arizona is a majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe.

It is the 4th most populous county in the USA. Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

Arizona Senate Race 2022 Polls

Source link