Alaska Senate Election Polls: How did the state vote in the Last Presidential Election?

Alaska Senate Polls: As per the latest Lisa Murkowski Polls, both Tshibaka and Murkowski have equal chances of winning the Senate race.

Alaska Senate Polls (Average): Lisa Murkowski 38%, Kelly Tshibaka 41%

Alaska Senate Polls(Latest Poll): Lisa Murkowski 41%, Kelly Tshibaka 39%

Alaska Senate Polls: Lisa Murkowski 44.2%, Kelly Tshibaka 39.8% (Primary Results)
Alaska Senate Predictions: Lisa Murkowski to Win

Google Search Volume: Lisa Murkowski 44%, Kelly Tshibaka 56%
Social Media Net Sentiments: Lisa Murkowski -10.8%, Kelly Tshibaka -46.5%
Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Lisa Murkowski to win by 10% due to Ranked Choice voting


The Alaska General election will be held on November 8th,2022 to elect a representative of Alaska State. The Incumbent Lisa  Murkowski, Republican and a three-time  Senator from Alaska, will be seeking a fourth term.

On August 16th in the Primary election, the incumbent Lisa Murkowski defeated the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in a closely fought election. Both candidates have now advanced for the General election scheduled for November 8th.

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Alaska Senate Race 2022 Predictions Table

Who is leading? Trending Towards
Polls Tie Murkowski
Google Search Tshibaka Murkowski
Social Media Sentiment Murkowski Murkowski

Alaska Senate Race 2022: Latest Polls

Date(s) Murkowski
(R)
Tshibaka
(R)
Chesbro
(D)
Kelley
(R)
Average October 3rd 38% 41% 14% 2%
Alaska Survey Research Sept 25 – 27 41% 39% 16% 4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)
Sept 6–11 35% 43% 13% 1%

Final Poll Tally After Elimination of Rest of the Candidates

Date(s) Murkowski Tshibaka
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)
Sept 6–11 50% 50%

Alaska Senate Predictions

No polls have been conducted for the upcoming Alaska Senate Race. However, the Alaska Senate Predictions have been completely in favor of the Republicans. Crowdwisdom360 predicts, Lisa Murkowski, to defeat Kelly Tshibaka

Google Search Volume: Kelly Tshibaka was trailing in Google searches but in the last few days, there has been a surge in the search volume for Kelly Tshibaka. Now both Tshibak and Murkowski have equal search volumes.

Last 7 Days
Lisa Murkowski 44%
Kelly Tshibaka 56%
Last 30 Days
Lisa Murkowski 58%
Kelly Tshibaka 42%

Voter Registration Statistics in Alaska

  • Republican Party – 142,266
  • Democratic Party – 78,664
  • Other Parties – 11,025
  • Alaskan Independence Party – 17,861
  • Non-Partisan – 80,972
  • Undeclared – 259,634

Alaska Senate Race Polls: Net Social Media Sentiment

Social Media Sentiment: Social media sentiments for Kelly Tshibaka have been better than that of Lisa Murkowski. In the last 7 days, her sentiments have further improved but it still remains negative.

October 7th
Murkowski -10.8%
Tshibaka -46.5%

Alaska Senate Polls: Latest Campaign Tweets

Alaska Senate Race 2022 Polls: Latest Campaign Videos

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Alaska Senate Polls: Fundraising Details

Lisa Murkowski

Alaska Senate Polls

Source of Funds

Alaska Senate Polls

Lisa Murkowski has been able to raise over $9M to finance her campaign for the upcoming Alaska Senate race. As of now, she has been able to spend slightly over $3M, and with a few more months to go before the General election, Murkowski has around $6M cash in hand.

Lisa Murkowski’s main source of finance has been Large individual contributions which are around nearly 60% of her total fund.

Kelly Tshibaka (R)

2022 Alaska Senate Polls and Predictions

Source of Funds

Alaska Senate Predictions

Kelly Tshibaka is trailing Lisa Murkowski when it comes to raising funds for her campaign. Kelly has been able to raise around $3M for her campaign. She has already used up around $2M and she has around $1.10M fund left with her.

Large Individual contributions account for around 70% of Kelly’s funding.

Alaska Senate Race Polls: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

Alaska has been a Republican-dominated state and in the last 3 decades, there has been only Republican Senate from Alaska. Lisa Murkowski has been a senator from Alaska since 2004. This year she is running for the 4th time to be elected as the Senator from Alaska. The last three Senate election in Alaska was held in the year 2016, 2010, and 2004. Here are the details about the last 3 Senate elections in Alaska:

2016 Alaska Senate Race: 2016 Alaska Senate was one of the most interesting senate elections in Alaska when a Libertarian polled more votes than the Democratic Party nominee. The election to elect a Senator from Alaska was held on November 8, 2016. Lisa Murkowski ran to be re-elected for the 3rd time as Senator of Alaska. Her main challenger was Libertarian Joe Miller who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.

The polls for the Senate election predicted an easy win for Lisa Murkowski, however, almost all the polls underestimated her Libertarian challenger Joe Miller. The polls predicted Lisa winning nearly 50% vote share while Joe Miller was predicted to less than 20% of total votes. The election result was slightly different than what was predicted. Lisa Murkowski won the election but she was able to poll around 44.4% vote share while her Libertarian challenger polled 29.2% vote share.

2010 Alaska Senate Race: The 2010 Alaska Senate election was held on November 2nd, 2010. Before the General election, a primary election was held on August 24, 2010. Joe Miller became the Republican nominee after defeating Lisa Murkowski in the Primary election. However, Murkowski announced that she will be running in the general election as a write-in candidate despite her defeat in the Primary election.

The polls for the General election had Joe Miller ahead of Lisa Murkowski. Almost all the polls gave Joe Miller around a 10% lead over Lisa Murkowski. However, the result was different from the polls. Lisa Murkowski defeated Joe Miller and went on to become the Senator once again. Lisa got 39.9% vote share while Joe Miller received 35.5% vote share.

Alaska Senate Race Polls: Result of Primary Election

Lisa Murkowski: 44.2% Kelly Tshibaka: 39.8%

Alaska Senate Race 2022 polls: Frequently Asked Questions

How many senators represent the state?

  • As per the constitution, there are two senators from each state. The senator must be at least thirty years of age and must be a citizen of the US for nine years. After getting elected the senator should be a citizen of Alaska.

Is Alaska red or blue?

  • Mostly Alaska gives more support to Republicans in presidential elections. Republicans have managed to win every state election except in 1964.

Alaska Senate Race: Demographics

As per the latest 2020 census figures, the Demographic composition of Alaska State stands as:

Alaska Senate Polls

The Population of Alaska has increased by 7.4% since the last election and the diversity of the state has increased by 6 percent due to the rapid growth in the black population.  The black population has increased by 37.1% since 2010.

Alaska Senate Election Polls: How did the state vote in the Last Presidential Election?

Donald Trump despite failing in his re-election performed excellently in Alaska. Trump carried Alaska as he won the state by securing 189,951 votes which is 52.83% of the total votes. He defeated Biden by 10%.

Biden did win Anchorage, the state’s largest city, making him the first Democrat to do so since Johnson. But Trump did fairly well in Kanai Peninsula and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough where he secured mammoth 70% votes offsetting Anchorage’s loss.

Republicans have won the last fourteen -presidential elections in Alaska.

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